Housing Value Drops Hit Majority of Homes in South Texas Border Counties

Arnoldo Mata

Edinburg, TX – According to a recent study by Zillow posted on Nov. 17, more than half of U.S. homes lost value over the past year, and those declines are increasingly evident in South Texas, including in the Rio Grande Valley.

Locally, the picture is mixed: in Cameron County, 74.3 percent of homes posted value declines. In Hidalgo County, where Edinburg is located, 69.0 percent of homes showed lower values. By contrast, in Starr County the share was just 23.7 percent, and in Willacy County it stood at 39.3 percent.

Zillow’s analysis shows that while 53 percent of homes nationally have lost value over the past year, only 4.1 percent of all homes are now valued below their last sale price (up from 2.4 percent a year ago), meaning most homeowners still hold equity.

According to a representative of the Hidalgo County Appraisal District, Zillow’s valuations and those by appraisal districts are done in very different ways. Because Texas law does not require buyers and sellers to reveal the sales price, Texas appraisal districts do not always have access to the actual sales price. Because Zillow and other commercial companies work directly with realtors, they often have more current information on the market value of properties.

While overall property appraisals in Hidalgo have consistently gone up over the last few years, the growth has not been consistent. For example, in the last five years, overall property values in Hidalgo County have fluctuated from one year to the next:

As the table demonstrates, some years show significant changes. The 15.04% increase from 2022 to 2023 reflects the pandemic real estate rise. The almost ten-point difference the following year showed the dramatic slowdown following that high.

Additionally, the changes are not uniform across the county. For example, valuations in one community can be quite different depending on conditions in that community. One city may see double-digit increases while another community may actually see a decrease.

What the numbers suggest

If Zillow’s projections are accurate for Hidalgo County and the broader Valley market, the data carry several implications:

• A large majority of homes in Hidalgo County currently reflect a decline in value — nearly 7 in 10 — even though far fewer are being forced to sell at a loss relative to their last purchase.
• The high rate of decline in Cameron County (74.3 percent) suggests that border-county markets may be more sensitive to regional and national headwinds such as rising interest rates, cooling buyer demand, or economic shifts.
• Starr County’s relatively low 23.7 percent suggests significant variation within the region as some counties have been far less affected so far.

What to watch going forward

• Whether the trend toward value declines broadens in the Valley, and whether more homes begin to sell for less than their previous purchase price. The current figure remains low nationally, but could rise if economic pressure deepens.
• Local drivers specific to Hidalgo County: employment growth or loss, demographic shifts (e.g., migration patterns), and affordability constraints may all shape whether this value decline is temporary or more structural.
• Whether the relatively strong equity position many homeowners still enjoy (thanks to earlier price gains) cushions the fallout, or whether new listings begin to reflect deeper discounts.

Why it matters

• For homeowners in Hidalgo County and nearby areas, the high share of value declines means the psychological effect of seeing a Zestimate or appraisal fall may become more common even if a sale loss is unlikely at this stage.
• For potential buyers, this may signal caution: while the market may not be in full retreat, the value momentum from recent years has paused, and expectations may need to adjust.
• For local real-estate professionals, public-policy and community leaders, the data underscore the importance of monitoring affordability, lending conditions, and economic health in the region.

In sum, while most homeowners are not yet selling at a loss, the fact that roughly 69 percent of homes in Hidalgo County have experienced a value drop signals a changing market landscape for the Rio Grande Valley region. Additionally, the drop in values does not seem to have affected valuations by the respective appraisal districts as homeowners continue to complain about increasing property valuations.